Six. That’s the number of hurricanes that have made major status this year (that is, winds higher than 115mph). Ten. That’s the number of storms that have made hurricane status this year---in a row.
Ophelia, despite traveling over waters that aren’t particularly warm, is a major hurricane right now.
And here’s a track you don’t see often!
Yeah, that’s Ireland in the cone.
Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 PM AST Sat Oct 14 2017...EYE OF HURRICANE OPHELIA PASSING SOUTH OF THE AZORES...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.9N 23.7W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SE OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHESWATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.Interests in the Azores should refer to products issued by the
Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center.Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann,
and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued
by the UK Met Office.DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the clear eye of Hurricane Ophelia was
located near latitude 35.9 North, longitude 23.7 West. Ophelia is
moving toward the northeast near 28 mph (44 km/h). A continued
northeast motion with an increase in forward speed is expected
tonight and Sunday, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast
Sunday night. On the forecast track, the core of Ophelia will
continue to pass south and east of the Azores tonight.Satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 115
mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Ophelia is a category 3 hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in
strength is expected tonight, but the hurricane is likely to become
post-tropical by early Monday morning, if not sooner. Ophelia is
forecast to remain a powerful cyclone with hurricane-force winds
as it approaches Ireland.Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km). The wind field of Ophelia is forecast to expand
substantially and wind and rain effects in Ireland and the UK are
expected to reach the coast well before the arrival of the center.The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores
through tonight, primarily due to a cold front currently passing
through the islands.RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 3 inches over the central and southeastern Azores through
Saturday night.NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
The 5pm discussion states that Ophelia will lose little of its strength as it transitions from tropical to extratropical and will remain an exceptionally powerful storm as it sweeps near to or over Ireland’s western coast on Monday.
Given the close proximity of the cold front and upper-level trough,
extratropical transition will likely begin within about 12 hours. A
favorable baroclinic environment may allow the cyclone to deepen as
the wind field increases in size, so only a slight decrease of the
maximum wind is expected through 36 hours. After that time, the
post-tropical cyclone will likely occlude and interact with land,
causing a faster rate of weakening and resulting in the eventual
dissipation of the surface circulation in about 96 hours.KEY MESSAGES:
1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with
hurricane force winds Monday while it moves near Ireland and the
United Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions
of these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions.
For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts
from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to
products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom
should refer to products issued by the Met Office.
Met Eireann has issued its highest level of warnings for much of Ireland for Monday, and the Met Office in the UK has yellow warnings up for western Britain, Scotland, and Northern Ireland for Monday.
Monday is also the 30th Anniversary of the Great Storm, often referred to as a hurricane (it was not) and dismissed as such the evening before by a BBC meteorologist (while he technically was right, he’s never quite lived this down). The Great Storm absolutely shellacked southern England, including London.
Ophelia might rival that for Ireland. This is a model forecast for some of the gusts as Ophelia approaches Ireland on Monday. This is in KPH—1 MPH=1.6 KPH roughly.
Some of the gusts are forecast to be higher than 120 mph in places. This is going to be a severe storm, probably worse than some of the truly vicious (named) winter gales that sweep the British Isles every year.
One thing that may give Ophelia some extra bite is a “Sting Jet”.
Following reanalysis of the Great Storm of 1987, led by Professor Keith Browning at the University of Reading, researchers identified a mesoscale flow where the most damaging winds were shown to be emanating from the evaporating tip of the hooked cloud head on the southern flank of the cyclone. This cloud, hooked like a scorpion's tail, gives the wind region its name the "sting jet".[2]
It is thought that a zone of strong winds, originating from within the mid-tropospheric cloud head of an explosively deepening depression, are enhanced further as the "jet" descends, drying out and evaporating a clear path through snow and ice particles. The evaporative cooling leading to the air within the jet becoming denser, leading to an acceleration of the downward flow towards the tip of the cloud head when it begins to hook around the cyclone centre. Windspeeds in excess of 80 kn (150 km/h) can be associated with the sting jet.[3]
Climate modeling forecasts that storms like Ophelia may become a regular occurrence.