Moving over cooler waters, Ophelia began its transformation from a tropical system to an extratropical one, a process it will complete later this evening. In its path however is Ireland which is preparing for its worst storm since 1961.
...OPHELIA STILL A HURRICANE BUT EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.6N 13.3W
ABOUT 840 MI...1355 KM NE OF THE AZORES
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SSW OF MIZEN HEAD IRELAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 38 MPH...61 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann,
and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued
by the UK Met Office.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ophelia was
located near latitude 44.6 North, longitude 13.3 West. Ophelia is
moving toward the north-northeast near 38 mph (61 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Monday. On the
forecast track, the center of Ophelia will cross over Ireland on
Monday, however strong winds and rain will extend far from the
center.
Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Ophelia is expected to be a hurricane-force post-tropical
cyclone when it nears the coast of Ireland on Monday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles
(405 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gale-force winds are expected to begin across southern
Ireland by early Monday morning and gradually spread northward
across the country during the day. Hurricane-force winds are
expected to reach the southern portions of Ireland by Monday
afternoon. Strong winds will then spread inland across the
Ireland and parts of the UK into Monday night. Preparations to
protect lives and property should be nearing completion.
Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.
RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to
3 inches (50 mm to 75 mm) with isolated totals near 4 inches (100
mm) through Tuesday across western Ireland and Scotland. Across
eastern Ireland, rainfall amounts will average around 1 inch (25 mm)
or less.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center of the post-tropical cyclone makes landfall. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
KEY MESSAGES:
all times are in atlantic standard time
1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with
hurricane force winds while it moves near Ireland and the United
Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions of
these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions. For
more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts from
post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to products
issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom should
refer to products issued by the Met Office.
2. Individuals are urged to not focus on the exact track of Ophelia
since strong winds and heavy rainfall will extend well outside of
the NHC forecast cone.
