The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season is a lot like the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Except where the 2005 season was a long and relentless pounding that lasted into January of the next year, this year is just a whole ‘nother level of relentless what the whole fuck.
Anyway we have Hurricane Ophelia (btw, we’ve had like 10 straight hurricanes form in a row, a record not seen since 1893).
Ophelia, surprisingly strong given that the waters beneath it are somewhat sub-optimal, is rocketing off to the northeast toward Europe and yes you did indeed read that right.
Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 AM AST Fri Oct 13 2017
...OPHELIA MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.1N 33.9W
ABOUT 615 MI...995 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in the Azores should refer to products issued by the
Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center. Interests in Ireland
should monitor products issued by Met Eireann, and interests in the
United Kingdom should monitor products issued by the UK Met Office.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ophelia was
located near latitude 31.1 North, longitude 33.9 West. Ophelia is
moving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through
Saturday. A turn toward the northeast with an additional increase
in forward speed is expected Saturday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Ophelia will pass near or to the southeast of
the southeastern Azores Saturday and Saturday night.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Only slight weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches over the southeastern Azores Saturday and Saturday
night. During the same time, a cold front and moisture associated
with Ophelia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to
3 inches over the other islands of the Azores. This rainfall could
produce flooding, especially over the southeastern Azores.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Berg
I should note here that there are indeed warnings out for the eastern Azores, issued by the Portuguese government.
Modeling consensus for the last few days has indicated that Ophelia will transition to a Post-Tropical cyclone over the weekend as it races toward the North Pole. As it does so, it’ll be passing near to or over Ireland.
Ireland and Great Britain are bashed yearly by multiple intense storms that sometimes look like hurricanes but are not. They are extratropical cyclones and they can be really vicious (and even have warm cores), as bad as if not worse than hurricanes. It’s why they name them over there and why I advocate the US National Weather Service get with the program and officially name them too, but I digress. While I’m not sure what kind of impact Ophelia will have across the British Isles, I can’t imagine it being worse than their worst extratropical storm, like the Great Storm of 1987. From the Guardian:
Parts of Britain should prepare to batten down the hatches as the tail end of Hurricane Ophelia could bring winds of up to 70mph from Monday following a mild weekend.
The weather system will drag in warm air from continental Europe that will help temperatures in south-east England climb to as high as 25C (77F).
But yellow warnings are in place in Northern Ireland and along the entire west coast of Britain for winds with the potential to cause power cuts, damage buildings, delay transport services and disrupt mobile phone coverage, the Met Office said.
Speaking of, one of the worst has its 30th anniversary this month. Monday, in fact, when the worst of the weather should be striking. The Great Storm of 1987, (and Michael Fish technically was right, it wasn’t a hurricane, although it’s often referred to as such by people who lived through it and popular culture) was one of the most vicious storms to strike Britain in decades, and remains so. This article in the Guardian was pretty good (although “1-in-200” is misapplied here.)
Oh, yes, I mentioned that this has happened before. It was 1961. Hurricane Debbie was a strong hurricane in the eastern Atlantic. It weakened as it passed through the Azores but then it began to transition. The National Hurricane Center’s data still holds that the storm was still tropical the morning before it struck Ireland’s west coast, and its central pressure fell to about 950mb---this would be equivalent to a Category 3 hurricane.
It’s still a matter of debate if Debbie was a hurricane. It was probably a lot like Hurricane Sandy.
So yes, this is unusual, but not out of the ordinary, and if this begins to happen year after year after year, then yes, something’s changed and we all know what that is. Also, it’s forecast and anticipated by climate modeling.
(At least one hurricane is known to have struck Spain, in 1842, and Vince struck Spain in 2005 as a tropical depression).