Heavy squalls are sweeping south Florida, with confirmed tornadoes embedded within. Meanwhile parts of Key West are already flooded.
BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Intermediate Advisory Number 43A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
800 PM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017...HEAVY SQUALLS WITH EMBEDDED TORNADOES SWEEPING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA...SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...23.3N 80.8W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ENE OF VARADERO CUBA
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.52 INCHES
Recon continues to find a storm with dropping pressure, although the winds have not increased at the time of this writing. An eyewall replacement appears to be happening and near complete, along with the inner eye rotating around the old eyewall. It’s giving the appearance that the storm is moving due west when it is not. The storm has also slowed down (appearing to almost stall) and will spend another 12+ hours over some very warm water and some fairly good atmospheric conditions. The slowdown/stall is generally indicative of a turn coming.
Lots of tornado warnings are out across Miami-Dade and Broward Counties.
Overnight tonight a turn more to the northwest and north should begin to become more evident as the hurricane rounds the periphery of a high pressure system to its east and is tugged north by two shortwaves currently over Mississippi and Arkansas and digging deep into the central Gulf of Mexico. There’s a limit to how far west it can go and I think 83W longitude is about it, probably between 81W and 82W.
Everything appears to more or less be on schedule (looking back at yesterday’s forecasts), and it is likely that an intensifying and intense hurricane will cross the Lower to Middle Keys tomorrow morning, and then strike the SW Florida coast around Ft. Myers later in the day. It still appears likely that most if not all of peninsula Florida will experience hurricane-force winds of some level, worse south-to-north and west-to-east.
Everyone’s preparations should be done now. If you’re reading this in Florida, and you do not feel comfortable in the structure you’re in, find an official shelter and go there, but the window where you can do this from south to north is rapidly closing.
WESTERN WILDFIRES
The wildfires out west are important—hell even where I live I saw their influence at sunset the other day as the high-altitude smoke colored the sky rather lovely.
I haven’t forgotten you out west.
That deep high out west does indeed have its role to play in Irma’s track. Features in the atmosphere way “upstream” over the Midwest steer hurricanes all the time.
JOSE
Some model runs take Jose into the Northeast on September 19th. This is a really long way off, and it is probably not going to happen, but I had to mention it since it’s being shared on social media. That said, Jose looks like it will spare the Leewards the worst. It will also linger for some time in the Atlantic and this is worth watching next week.
Lastly, we have until November 30th for rest of hurricane season, and a disturbance has rolled out of Senegal into the Atlantic. It has a 50% chance of developing within the next 3 days as it moves westward.
Sporadic updates through 1130pm eastern.