Hurricane Matthew underwent a pretty well-timed eyewall replacement cycle yesterday afternoon, which is likely the reason it wobbled more to the north and avoided crossing the coast of Florida south of Cape Canaveral.
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 500 AM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW MOVING PARALLEL TO AND JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...
...WESTERN EYEWALL WITH HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS APPROACHING CAPE
CANAVERAL...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 80.0W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SE OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Hurricane Warning from Jupiter Inlet south to Boca Raton has
been replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning. The Tropical Storm
Warning has been discontinued south of Boca Raton, as well as for
Lake Okeechobee. The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued
south of Anna Maria Island.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry
Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence
* Jupiter Inlet to South Santee River
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Suwannee River
* North of South Santee River to Surf City
* Boca Raton to Jupiter Inlet
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Anna Maria Island to Anclote River
Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula and in the Carolinas
should monitor the progress of Matthew. The Hurricane Warning for
the Northwestern Bahamas will likely be discontinued later this
morning.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
by NOAA Doppler weather radars and an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 80.0 West.
Matthew is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h),
and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn
toward the north is expected tonight or Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Matthew will be moving near or over the east
coast of the Florida peninsula through tonight, and near or over the
coasts of Georgia and South Carolina on Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Although weakening is forecast during the
next 48 hours, Matthew is expected to be a category 3 hurricane as
it moves near the coast of Florida today.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km). During the past hour, a sustained wind of 49 mph
(80 km/h) with a gust to 74 mph (118 km/h) was reported at Vero
Beach, Florida. A sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) with a gust
to 69 mph (111 km/h) was reported at Melbourne, Florida. NOAA buoy
41009 off Cape Canaveral recently reported a sustained wind of 65
mph (104 km/h) with a gust to 78 mph (126 km/h).
The latest minimum central pressure reported by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 938 mb (27.70 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions should diminish over portions of the
northwestern Bahamas this morning.
Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane
warning area in Florida during the next several hours and will
spread northward within the warning area through today. Tropical
storm conditions will continue to spread northward in the warning
area along the Florida east coast today.
Hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward in the warning
area in Georgia and South Carolina tonight and Saturday with
tropical storm conditions expected later today.
Winds increase rapidly in elevation in a tropical cyclone.
Residents in high-rise buildings should be aware that the winds at
the top of a 30-story building will be, on average, about one
Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the surface.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area in the Carolinas tonight and Saturday.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide,
and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near
the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground
if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Sebastian Inlet, Florida, to Edisto Beach, South Carolina, including
portions of the St. Johns River...7 to 11 ft
Edisto Beach to South Santee River, South Carolina...4 to 6 ft
Jupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet, Florida...4 to 6 ft
South Santee River, South Carolina, to Cape Fear, North Carolina...2
to 4 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water
rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of
the center. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
Water levels in the northwestern Bahamas should continue to subside
during the day.
There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36
hours along the Florida east coast, the Georgia coast, and the South
Carolina coast from Jupiter Inlet, Florida, to South Santee River,
South Carolina. There is the possibility of life-threatening
inundation during the next 48 hours from north of South Santee
River, South Carolina, to Cape Fear, North Carolina. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
...7 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE... ...WESTERN EDGE OF MATTHEW'S EYEWALL CONTINUES TO BRUSH CAPE CANAVERAL...
During the past hour, a wind gust of 107 mph (170 km/h) occurred on
the tip of Cape Canaveral.
SUMMARY OF 700 AM EDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 80.1W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SE OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES
The hurricane is traversing the Gulf Stream so it seems to be maintaining its strength. From its current position off of Cape Canaveral, a track at 330 degrees would take the eye very close to or over Jacksonville later today. Matthew is expected to turn north at some point today so it may avoid landfall in Florida.
Surge and hefty inland freshwater flooding in Georgia and the Carolinas may be the bigger story here. I thought yesterday that this would be the case from Jacksonville to Hilton Head despite a stronger storm coming ashore farther south (thankfully, it wobbled and didn’t), and still think this will be.
Matthew should move near to or over the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina on Saturday. Beyond Saturday depends. The so-called “loop” depicted is not so set in stone (and if it did come back, it would not be much of anything), and beyond Saturday shear is expected to increase substantially.
Damage reports from Haiti however appear to be extreme, and damage in the Bahamas is significant.
NICOLE
Nicole is a rather surprising little hurricane, actually intensifying into a formidable little hurricane last night.
Nicole is expected to meander in the Atlantic for a few days before finally being pulled north and northeast. It may threaten Bermuda early next week, otherwise I don’t think there’s any handle on where Nicole will go.
It’s worth nothing this from the discussion yesterday evening on Nicole:
A climate note: This is the first time since September 10, 1964 that two Category 2 (or stronger) hurricanes have occurred simultaneously in the Atlantic basin west of 65W. Interestingly,
those hurricanes in 1964, Dora and Ethel, were in similar positions as Matthew and Nicole are now.
Hurricane Dora, in 1964, was Jacksonville’s last hurricane.
Updates throughout the day. Please check in here if you’re under threat.